Scenario Planning in Practice.

To make good decisions today, we need to understand the future more effectively.

That doesn’t mean trying to predict what will happen. Predictions mislead us. They are often wrong.

A better approach is scenarios: rehearsing different versions of the future before they happen, and wake ourselves up to new possibilities.

I've spent 35 years helping people organizations develop this capability.

Our goal is to anticipate surprises, take advantage of opportunities, recognize the inevitable changes—and create a strategy now for meeting whatever lies ahead.

Step 1. Assemble a team to do the work

Bring three distinct groups into the room:

  1. Decision-makers who will act on the insights generated

  2. Subject matter experts from within your organization

  3. Outside perspectives: people who can challenge your assumptions

Step 5. Bring the futures to life

Portray these futures as if they’re real. Imagine living in them. Consider the implications for families, communities, businesses, and change in general. In South Africa during the 1980s, ending apartheid seemed impossible. But then came a series of scenario exercises with people across the political spectrum participating. By showing how it could happen, scenario planning made the "impossible" feel achievable.

Step 2. Set your focus with a core question and year

How will AI affect my job? Where should we invest? How should I manage the energy transition or supply chain? How long will it be before we get the funding we need? Pose a question where:
1. The answer isn't obvious.
2. You can influence the outcome through your choices.
3. The timeframe allows for meaningful action.
The scenarios will invite you to imagine what might happen around that question.

Then pick a year when the outcomes will be evident. Rule of thumb: Ask yourself how long will it take to know whether my strategy is working? Add two years to that date.

Step 3. Research driving forces: the trends that shape the future

Look for meaningful indicators — the factors that will affect your core question over time. For example: By 2035, sub-Saharan Africa will have more working-age people (ages 18-65) than any other region. That much is predetermined. But how will global businesses adapt to this shift? Will it drive remote work, or entrepreneurialism in the continent?

Step 4. Pick a few narratives

From all the forces you've identified, consider possible outcomes, including some that you consider unthinkable. Of all these futures, which could teach you something important?

Pick just 3 or 4. They don’t have to cover all possible outcomes. Just enough to represent the complexity of the real world.

They’ll all have “good” and “bad” qualities. They’ll all have resistance and pushback. The bigger the wave, the stronger the undertow. For example, these scenarios on the future of AI all have reaction as part of the plot:

• Highly Regulated AI — leads to a huge black market in contraband tech.

• No Source of Truth – where a public desperate for credible information turns to a new Wikipedia-like source of guaranteed provenance.

• AI Makes Defense Cheap — and cyberattack on energy systems is the new weapon of choice.

Step 6. Move from insight to strategy

With each imagined future, seek the warning or hidden opportunity. Make “no-regrets” decisions, which will make sense in any possible future. Consider what would have to happen to create the future you want.

HOW WE WORK TOGETHER.

I help identify the focus, coordinate the research into driving forces, facilitate the sessions (with participants developing the scenarios) and coach you through the implications.